West Palm Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS62 KMFL 031736
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1236 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A deep mid level trough over the region will gradually slide into
the western Atlantic tonight into Wednesday. This will allow for the
mid level flow to gradually become more zonal across South Florida
heading into Wednesday. At the surface, an expansive area of high
pressure centered off to the north will gradually move southeastward
towards the Florida Peninsula tonight into Wednesday. This will
allow for the deep layer dry air mass to remain in place through the
middle of the week. With the pressure gradient remaining tight over
the region tonight, the breezy northerly wind flow will continue,
allowing for strong cold air advection to remain firmly in place.
This will create chilly conditions across the region tonight as low
temperatures drop into the upper 30s west of Lake Okeechobee to the
lower to mid 40s across the rest of Southwest Florida. Low
temperatures over the east coast metro areas will drop into the
lower 50s. When the wind is factored into the equation for tonight,
it will make the temperatures feel a few degrees cooler than the
actual low temperatures.

As the center of the surface high pressure moves closer to the
region on Wednesday, the pressure gradient will gradually relax
which will allow for the winds to subside as the day progresses. The
southeastward movement of the area of high pressure will also cause
the winds across the region to veer and become northeasterly on
Wednesday. This will begin a gradual moderating trend in
temperatures as winds start to come off the warmer Atlantic waters.
High temperatures for Wednesday will generally rise into the lower
70s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

With the previous 500mb shortwave/lobe of troughing advecting
eastward into the western Atlantic waters by late Wednesday, the
subtropical jet-stream will take a more zonal (west to east)
orientation across the region. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate the
next short-wave/lobe remaining a little further north, keeping the
best dynamics closer to its trajectory over the Great Lakes,
northeastern United States, and mid-Atlantic. Synoptic changes
aloft dictate what occurs at the surface and the anomalous heights
(strong surface high pressure) currently over the southeastern
United States will advect offshore into the western Atlantic as
well. This subtle but key move will switch our prevailing surface
flow from a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction.
Albeit light during the second half of the week, this wind shift
will begin to moderate the air mass over South Florida. Expect a
gradual climb in both low and high temperatures as the week
progresses as well as a gradual moistening of dew points across
the region.

The aforementioned further north shortwave will also have a surface
signal in the form of an area of low pressure that transits the
northeastern United States. This low will also drag an associated
surface frontal boundary southeastward across the United States,
bringing a reinforcing shot of dry air and cool weather. The GEFS/EPS
both depict this boundary reaching Central Florida by the end of the
week, however both solutions diverge on the southward propagation and
resolution of temperatures behind this frontal passage. A quicker
transit of surface high pressure over the southeastern United States
due to further-removed synoptic forcing may result in a shorter period
of peninsular drainage flow which would not be conducive in bringing
colder temperatures all the way down the peninsula into South Florida.
Instead a faster transit of surface high pressure into the western
Atlantic waters would result in winds veering to a northeasterly
direction and moderating the air mass via passage over the (still)
relatively warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream just to the east
of South Florida. As has been the norm with the previous frontal
boundary passages, residual dry air and a lack of synoptic forcing
directly ahead will result in a mainly dry approach and passage of
the frontal boundary across the area late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A gusty
northerly wind flow this afternoon will gradually subside across
all terminals as this evening progresses. These winds will
gradually become northeasterly on Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Hazardous marine conditions will linger across the Atlantic waters
through this evening as a fresh northerly wind flow remains in place
along with seas of 4 to 7 feet. As high pressure gradually shifts
into the western Atlantic on Wednesday, winds across all local
waters will gradually diminish and seas across the Atlantic waters
will subside. Another frontal boundary may approach the local waters
towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, which may
cause winds and seas to increase during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast
beaches through the middle of the week as a northeasterly swell
lingers across the Atlantic waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A strong area of high pressure centered off to the north will
continue to funnel a dry air mass into the region this afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity values across most of South Florida will
range between 20 and 30 percent during this time frame. While the
sustained 20 foot wind speeds will remain below 15 mph and the
Significant Fire Potential remains low, the deep layer dry air mass
will create enhanced fire weather conditions for the rest of the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            54  73  61  77 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     52  74  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        54  74  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        50  74  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  53  72  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  54  72  61  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   53  75  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  52  72  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       51  73  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           45  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CWC